It’s shaping up to be a thrilling final round of football, with several clubs still needing to win to cement their place in the top eight – and others fighting to secure a coveted top four double chance.
The 2025 AFL season has delivered a brilliant run into September, full of twists, high-quality contests, and dramatic finishes. Round 24 promises more of the same, with a true marathon of must-win clashes that will decide the fate of multiple clubs.
Below is my snapshot of the weekend’s match-ups – the merry-go-round of who wins, who loses, and where they are likely to finish in the top eight.
Round 24 Match Stakes – One Week Out from Finals
Essendon (15th) vs Carlton (12th)
Both eliminated. No finals implications.
Carlton wins
Collingwood (4th) vs Melbourne (14th)
Pies must win to lock in top four.
Collingwood wins
Port Adelaide (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (9th)
Suns must win to jump into top eight and stay alive.
Gold Coast Suns wins
North Melbourne (16th) vs Adelaide (1st)
If the Crows win they are minor premiers.
North Melbourne wins – upset of the round.
Richmond (17th) vs Geelong (2nd)
Cats must win to keep pressure on Adelaide for top spot and secure top twp.
Geelong wins
West Coast (18th) vs Sydney (10th)
Swans cannot reach finals.
Sydney wins
GWS (6th) vs St Kilda (11th)
Giants still a top four chance if they win and percentage swings.
GWS wins
Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Fremantle (7th)
Dogs win = finals secured.
Dockers win = possible top four finish.
A real elimination-style clash.
Western Bulldogs wins
Brisbane (3rd) vs Hawthorn (5th)
Both fighting for top four-top two.
Winner could move into top two; loser may slide into elimination bracket.
Brisbane wins
Gold Coast (9th) vs Essendon (15th) – midweek
If Suns beat Port, this becomes a win-and-in finals decider.
Gold Coast Suns wins
Key One-Week-Out Finals Scenarios
Adelaide: Win and finish minor premiers.
Geelong: Locked in top two if it beats Richmond.
Brisbane v Hawthorn: Could shape the top two-top four order.
Collingwood: Win over Melbourne = top four guaranteed.
GWS / Fremantle: Win plus results its way could lift them into top four.
Western Bulldogs: Win and stay in. Lose and Gold Coast can pinch their spot.
Gold Coast: Win both round 24 games (Port and Essendon) = first ever finals berth.
Final Word – The Countdown to September
Round 24 isn’t just the end of the home-and-away season – it’s effectively the first week of finals in disguise. With so much still on the line, every contest carries weight, from the Bulldogs fighting for survival, to the Suns chasing history, to Adelaide and Geelong battling for the minor premiership. The rare Wednesday night clash between the Suns and Bombers – a hangover from the opening round scheduling disaster – means the finals race won’t be officially settled until the very last bounce of the season. After 23 weeks of twists and turns, it all comes down to this: one last stop before finals – and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
