A new draft annual report by CSIRO and Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) shows that even though renewables are still the cheapest new-build electricity, technology costs are soaring across the board, including in Maribyrnong and Hobsons Bay.
The draft GenCost report shows technology costs have increased an average of 20 per cent for new-build electricity generation in Australia.
GenCost is an annual report taking input from industry stakeholders to update electricity generation, storage and hydrogen production costs. A CSIRO statement said the report remained consistent with previous years, showing renewables (onshore wind and solar PV) remained the cheapest cost technologies.
“The 2022-23 consultation draft examines a range of future scenarios to analyse global technology deployment and associated costs for each pathway,” the CSIRO said.
“Modelling … found that global supply chain constraints and inflation have placed upward pressure on technology costs following the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Rises, as low as nine per cent for solar PV and up to 35 per cent for wind, were not uniform due to variations in material inputs and exposure to freight prices.
“Modelling suggests that the inflationary cycle is likely to peak in 2022 and 2023, returning to normal cost levels by 2027.”
CSIRO chief energy economist Paul Graham said innovation in electricity generation technology was a global effort strongly linked to climate change policy ambitions.
“Technology costs are one piece of the puzzle, providing critical input to electricity sector analysis. To limit emissions, our energy system must evolve and become more diverse,” he said.
CSIRO said the final GenCost report will be delivered mid-2023.
